Seven Olympic Nordic Skiing Answers

Following up on NCP's "Seven Olympic Nordic Skiing Questions" from the middle of February...

How many golds will be won by Norway's Petter Northug and Poland's Justyna Kowalczyk?

2/14/10: "My own guess is that Kowalczyk will win two golds, in the 10km skate and the classic sprint, and medal in the pursuit and the classic mass start. I think Northug will do even better: golds in the 15km skate, the pursuit, and the relay and lesser medals in the classic mass start and the team sprint."

Four and three, respectively - good, but not the best performances by an XC skier at the Games. Northug won golds in the team sprint and the 50k, silver in the relay, and bronze in the individual sprint (not quite the five medals I predicted). Kowalczyk took gold in the 30k, bronze in the pursuit, and silver in the individual sprint (not the predicted four). Neither's haul is anything to cry about, but neither did as well as the Queen of Whistler: Marit Bjørgen, who won five medals, one in every event she raced: a bronze in the 10k, a silver in the 30k, and golds in the pursuit, the relay, and the sprint.

Has any other racer or team figured out a way to beat Northug?

2/14/10: "Northug's main rivals would love to beat him, and I hope for some tricks and outright hard efforts to accomplish that goal. "

Sorta. In the pursuit, Sweden mounted a concerted effort to slow down the chase of Johan Olsson - an effort that everyone understood was centered largely on Northug. The chasers finally broke through in the last kilometer or so, but then Northug had some pole trouble and couldn't get in position for a sprint onto the podium. In the individual sprint, the Russian pair of Kriukov and Panzhinskiy went for broke from the start line, building a good gap and capitalizing on a crash behind them to ensure that the only suspense at the finish line would be which of them took the gold. And in the relay, Sweden again took charge, taking advantage of the Norwegian team's weak classic skiing to build a small but solid lead going into the anchor leg. Northug skied hard to get back into the front of the group chasing Marcus Hellner, but only managed to take the silver.

On the other hand, Northug took his two golds by using his speed and savvy to negate even the best tactics. In the team sprint, the German #1, Tim Tscharnke, tagged to Axel Teichmann with a small lead, but Northug caught a ride up to the front with an overeager Alexei Petukhov, and then surged past Teichmann for the win. In the 50k, a slow pace until the last lap allowed Northug to lurk, saving himself for a sprint for the win - which he did. I was amazed to see the marathon field unlearn everything that had worked in the pursuit, and let Northug simply ride up to the line. A few tough attacks in the last 10k would have blown up the field and given someone else a chance for the gold medal. But then again, the last half-hour of an Olympic 50k isn't the best place to start strategizing.

How many medals will be won by the American nordic combined skiers?

2/14/10: "The only question is whether the Americans' performance will be so-so, with a bronze or two, or dominant, with golds and silvers in the two individual events - and even a win in the team event."

Four altogether, including America's first-ever Olympic medal in this discipline, and America's first-ever Olympic gold medal in a nordic sport. On the morning of the normal-hill event at the Games, I was still hoping that the American team could run the table by taking golds in all three events, and adding a couple silvers and bronzes. That didn't quite happen, but Johnny Spillane ended the NC-medal drought right away by winning a silver in the small-hill event. Second-best skis led to a well-earned second place in the team event, and good jumping off the large hill put Bill Demong and Spillane in position to take the gold and the silver in that event. All together, the U.S. won four of the seven medals they could have won - not a bad performance at all.

Will American cross-country skiers win any medals?

2/14/10: "I will be surprised but enormously pleased to see an American win a medal at Vancouver."

Sadly, I did not have the opportunity to be surprised: the U.S. cross-country skiers did not win any medals at Vancouver. Many are saying, in fact, that the American results, especially on the men's side, were a disappointment. I won't weigh in on that, but I will point out that both American teams made it into the finals of the team sprint event, which is no minor accomplishment. As half of the women's team sprint pair, Kikkan Randall had a good Games: the sixth there, an eighth in the the individual sprint (just 0.6s from making it into the medal round), and a surprising 24th in the 30k classic.

Will Canadian cross-country skiers win any medals?

2/14/10: "I won't be surprised if a Canadian wins a medal at Vancouver."

I wasn't surprised, but I was disappointed that the Canadians did not win a medal, what with their crazy uniforms - which actually grew on me, as the Games progressed. Canucks came awfully close: Babikov placed fifth in the pursuit, Kershaw placed fifth in the 50k, the team of Harvey and Kershaw placed fourth in the team sprint, and the men's relay squad turned in a decent seventh. The women, lacking a clear-cut star like Beckie Scott, had less impressive results, but the retiring Sara Renner did team with Dasha Gaiazova for a seventh in the team sprint, and finish 10th in the pursuit.

Can Tim Burke medal in the biathlon?

2/14/10: "Though his form has declined a bit... he could well recapture it at Vancouver, and must be considered to have a decent shot (pun!) at a medal in 2010."

Sadly, no: Burke did not win a medal. He actually raced quite poorly, finishing in the 40s in the sprint, the pursuit, and the individual, and managing an 18th in the mass start. Teammate Jeremy Teela had the best American mark of the Games with a 9th in the 10k sprint.

Who will be caught for doping at the Olympics?

2/14/10: "I would expect a Russian or even (sadly) Justyna Kowalczyk, who simply performs at too high a level too often. But god, I hope it's a clean games."

So far, nobody has been caught - which is good in and of itself, after the fiascoes at Salt Lake City and Torino. We shouldn't exhale quite yet, though. Commenting on Canada's fourth in the team relay, a commenter on Fasterskier said, "With Russians in front we Canadians don’t know the results for a few months, sometimes even a year!"

Turns out, that's not quite true - it could be eight years before we're sure that the Vancouver Games were doping free, for that's how long the IOC keeps samples for possible retesting. And Canadian labs are still analyzing samples taken during the Games. We could hear the worst at any time.