To Italy!

In ginning up this post for the Tour de Ski rest day, I discovered why the next venue, the first in Italy, is always listed with two names: Toblach is the German name for the town while Dobbacio is the Italian name. Thanks, Wikipedia! (But no thanks for not telling us the Ladin name for the place.)

The first race in Toblach/Dobbacio is an unusual one: a 3k/5k classical technique run in interval start. The funny distances put this race somewhere between a prologue and very short distance event. The pacing is going to be a critical issue, especially since the courses are Davosian: up a huge climb, then down a giant descent to the finish. If the race were longer, I'd tab Johaug for the women's win, but I don't think she and her ponytail can outdescend the bigger racers like Bjørgen and Kowalczyk, who is so much better on the downs that I suspect she did some alpine skiing in the offseason.

Beyond those predictions, I wanted to look briefly at the general classifications as the race shifts to Italy. I had the impression that both the men's and women's GC were pretty tight, but they're actually not, at least relative to recent history. On the men's side, Northug and Cologna are separated by just 1.1 seconds, but Legkov is at +52.3, Vylegzhanin is at +59.8, and Kershaw is at +1:03.3. On the women's side, Kowalczyk has a small but respectable gap back to Bjørgen at +26.6s, a bigger gap of +1:06.6 to Johaug, and very solid gaps of just over three minutes to Randall and Saarinen.

Looking back to comparable moments in previous Tours de Ski, we find two different stories. The men's GC is currently tighter at the top but about the same for the rest of the top five. Only in the 2007-2008 race, when Bauer led but just seven seconds covered the top five places, was the men's GC more closely packed. (Arguably, the 2008-2009 resembles this year's, since the top five were within 48s. However, Bauer, the eventual winner, was way back in 18th place, two minutes out. What a comeback he made!)

Compared to last year's race, when Kowalcyzk was in control by the halfway point of the Tour, the current women's GC has a smaller gap between 1 and 2, but bigger intervals after that. In this sense, both last year and this year differ from every other running of the TdS, during which the top five women were all within about thirty seconds of the frontrunner. If nothing else, these comparisons speak to the fact that two pairs of skiers - Northug and Cologna, Kowalczyk and Bjørgen - are easily the best skiers in each race right now. Whether that means they win the Tour, we'll start to see on Wednesday morning.

Here's the historical record (asterisks make the eventual winners)...
2010-2011 - after fourth event (5+5k pursuit at Oberstdorf)
* Kowalczyk 1:01:52.3
Kalla +1:19.8
Longa +1.22.1
Majdic +1:35.1
Lahteenmaki +1:46.8

2010-2011 - after fourth event (10k+10k pursuit at Oberstdorf)
* Cologna 1:37:51
Kershaw +45.9
Hellner +1.06.1
Legkov +1.06.7
Harvey +1:23.8

2009-2010 - after fourth event (1.2k C sprint in Prague)
Saarinen 40:16.3
* Kowalczyk +24.9
Majdic +29.7
Follis +31.7
Korosteleva +45.2

2009-2010 - after fourth event (1.6k C sprint in Prague)
Jönsson 51:50
Hellner +43.8
Oestensen +44.3
Vylegzhanin +46.5
Northug +47.3
( * 18. Bauer +1:59.5)

2008-2009 - after fourth event (9k C in Nove Mesto)
* Kuitunen 57:49.3
Saarinen +5.6
Bjørgen +23.0
Kowalczyk +47.3
Majdic +54.0

2008-2009 - after fourth event (15k C in Nove Mesto)
* Cologna 1:24:36.9
Rotchev +16.3
Teichmann +16.5
Roenning +20.9
Johnsrud Sundby +47.9

2007-2008 - after fourth event (10k F pursuit in Nove Mesto)
http://www.fis-ski.com/pdf/2008/CC/2438/2008CC2438TDS.pdf* Kalla 1:03:25.5
Follis +8.5
Kowalczyk +10.1
Kuitunen +17.6
Nystad +30.8

2007-2008 - after fourth event (15k F pursuit in Nove Mesto)
* Bauer 1:24:02.1
Koukal +3.2
Piller Cottrer +3.4
Checchi +4.6
Gjerdalen +6.9

2006-2007 - after third event (10k C in Oberstdorf)
Steira 1:00:05.9
Majdic +20.4
Saarinen +23.2
*Kuitunen +26.4
Shevchenko +27.9

2006-2007 - after third event (15k C in Oberstdorf)
* Angerer 1:32:30.3
Oestensen +17.0
Goering +30.7
Dementiev +35.4
Northug +42.8

Teichmannia

How unexpected was Teichmann's win in the Oberhof classic pursuit? Unexpected enough that none of the 187 guesses on XC Predictions included ol' Axel for any of the three podium spots. The wisdom of crowds?

Of course, who'd have thought Teichmann had anything left? His last top-ten finish was last February. His last podium finish was the 2009 Tour de Ski, when he was famously blown away by Northug on the Final Climb. The guy hasn't been fast in a while, and yet: there he was at the front of the race and perfectly positioned to exploit the crash to take a surprisingly easy win - and the top spot in the general classification.

The women's race played out more conventionally, though surprisingly Bjørgen was not there to vie for the win at the end. I really through Johaug would be able to take Kowalczyk in the finishing straight, but the taller, bigger Pole had a little too much today.

These results - the one crazy, the one normal - have whetted my appetite for the rest of the Tour. Can the Germans - both men (three in the top dozen today and overall) and women (two in the top ten today and overall) - stay strong? What about the Russian men, who were massed at the front of the race today?

My picks for the classic sprint in Oberstdorf:

World Champs Hits and Misses

The 2011 World Ski Championships have been over for more than a week now, so I figure I'd better write a leetle recap before the campfires in Holmenkollen are totally cold. (I'm sure you recall our recap of the 2009 Liberec Worlds, right?) I'm too blog-jaded to do a full, formal recap, so I'll just provide a few hits and misses.

HIT

The Kollen-brølet - 'Kollen roar - thanks to the half-million spectators who showed up. That's a lot of herring munchers! (Photo from Oskar Karlin's excellent World Champs photostream.)

MISS

The 'Kollen-tåte - 'Kollen fog. Look! The slightly faster gray blob is passing the slightly slower gray blob!

HIT

Apparently no dopers were caught at Oslo, even though at least one competed. (Two, if you're a Bjørgen-hater.)

MISS
Apparently no dopers were caught at Oslo.

HIT

Bjørgen's dominance of the women's events - four golds and a silver. Not bad, unlike this inexplicable banner along the track. With fans like these, who needs grumpy Polish rivals?

(Also from Oskar's photostream.)

MISS

Alexander Legkov. How do you say "choke" in Russian? I'm no longer thinking of him as the Russian #1: clearly Vylegzhanin is the superior skier, especially in big races. And Chernousov isn't far behind. Though Legkov has finished on a World Cup podium eleven times (including stage races), he hasn't yet won an individual medal at Worlds or the Olympics, while Vylegzhanin has four World Cup medals and three Worlds silvers, and even the relatively unknown Chernousov has three individual World Cup podiums and a Worlds bronze.

HIT

Marcus Hellner winning the hell(ner) out of the freestyle sprint. Amazing.

MISS

No American medals at all. Last year, Newell crashed out of the classic sprint; this year, Kikkan crashed out of the freestyle sprint. It's hard to keep the black side down in the big races. *sighs*

HIT

Yes Canadian gold. Alex Harvey's surge on the home stretch of the men's team sprint to pass Ola Vigen Hattestad and take Canada's first-ever World Championships gold was freaking awesome. Not only was it a superb finish to an excellent race, but it meant that Devon Kershaw - one of the best guys on the World Cup (fast skier, cool dude, and Packer fan!) - finally got to hang a gold medal around his neck. I love his superstitiousness:

Kershaw said he and Harvey also had a morning discussion about the race. “We woke up at 9:45 this morning and Alex said to me ‘So how will it feel to be the world champion tonight?’ I said, ‘don’t, don’t say that. I don’t want to jinx us. I knew we could be world champions, but I didn’t think we were going to be.”

And Harvey's win really made the Norwegians feel real real bad - or was it the shhh?

(Photo from the Star (Toronto).)

MISS

I know that there was some furor about Harvey's "shhh" gesture, but it paled in comparison to the bratty 'Thuggish grandstanding at the end of the relay. I hope I'm not just been North-Americocentric here, but - as I argued on March 4 - there's a huge difference between a few seconds of shhhing after crossing the line and Northug's extended mockery of his competition. Like I said, "Shameful."

HIT

Therese Johaug's amazing win in the 30km mass start. When she first climbed away from Bjørgen and Kowalcyzk, I figured that it wouldn't last, that they'd sweep her up well before the finish line. That didn't happen. The race was probably the best since the Olympic 50 last March. Nice win.

HIT

Last, I am honor bound to report that I won the very satisfying contest among the nordic-skiing bloggers who participated in the wonderful "XC Predictions" game for the Oslo Worlds. Of the 120 participants (of whom 41 made all of the possible predictions, rather than just one or two), I finished fourth, four spots ahead of Nordic Xplained and 55 spots ahead of Statistical Skier. The prediction contest continues through the end of the year!

Man. vs. Machine

Forget racing the 50km, Marit: how about racing a Pisten Bully?

Puursuutamo

I've gone on record on this blog and in the world-renowned Fasterskier podcasts as being emphatically in favor of pursuit-style races, and Sunday's freestyle pursuits at Kuusamo only reinforce my support. (Pursuit-start races will occur at least four more times during this World Cup season: three times during the Tour de Ski and once during the Finale in Falun.)

The Kuusamo pursuits are going to cover some of the same brutal trails as today's 5/10k races: a descent right out of the stadium, a long half-kilometer climb followed by a steep descent to the halfway point of the 5k lap, a series of small/medium/large climbs over the next 2000 meters, and then the hard climb back to the stadium. It's a great course for pursuits, where some racers will cluster naturally, according to start intervals, while others have to ski alone. Marit Bjørgen should be able to ski alone for the entirety of her race, but some jockeying should occur behind her as Majdic (starting 26 seconds behind), Kowalczyk (+35s), and Kalla (+43s) chase. My picks:

women's 10k handicap start

1. Bjørgen

2. Kowalczyk

3. Kalla

Randall: top 20

On the men's side, we should see even more place-swapping, since sprinters Joensson and Poltaranin are the first two starters. Cologna, starting 10 seconds behind Joensson, should have no problem catching them. Behind, Harvey has been told by his coaches to ski with Legkov and perhaps Rickardsson all the way through the race, catching the sprinters and positioning himself for a podium spot - which would be a brilliant result. Starting in 13th place at +49s, Freeman should be able to move up quite a few spots past sprinters and/or classic specialists. A top 10 is almost certain (on the assumption that Poltaranin, Joensson, Roenning, maybe Filbrich, and Eriksson won't maintain their positions), and a top 5 is possible. Whatever the results, it'll be a great race.

men's 10k handicap start

1. Cologna

2. Legkov

3. Harvey

Freeman: top 7; Kershaw: top 15

Hard Man

From a short interview with Lukas Bauer translated and published by the FIS:

Q: How did you survive summer with your health?

LB: I stayed healthy the whole summer. Only during the last week on our camp in Obertiliach I pulled my thigh muscle. I ran forty-five 100 m sprints and still feel uncomfortable. I will have it checked by a physiotherapist

4.5 kilometers, 100 meters at a time. Nice.

On related note, only 5 months and 10 days until the 2011 World Ski Championships at the Holmenkollen!

Top Excuses of the Olympics

Jumping right over the shark tank of assessing whether and why the U.S. team "underperformed," here are a few other notable excusemaking exercises from the Olympics:

2/10/10: Justyna Kowalcyzk, on why she might not tear it up at the Olympics:

"I know that the course is too easy."

2/16/10: Norway coach Morten Aa Djupvik, on Norway's terrible performance in the opening 15k skate:

"Today we didn't have skis that were good enough. If we're going to be able to fight for our honor we have to have skis that can compete with the best, and we didn't have that today."

2/20/10: Vegard Ulvang, on how the world's best sprinter could have crashed while training for the sprints:

"We didn't fence it off and we should have done but there are no rules that all of a cross country course should be fenced off... The place where she fell ... she didn't follow the ideal line."

2/21/10: Lukas Bauer, on Sweden's team tactics in the men's pursuit:

"They tried to block the track. In some parties, it was not fair play. I was very angry and considered to break the stick to Hellner by a couple of cases where he ran the whole game."

2/23/10: on why Petra Majdic won a mere bronze in the individual sprint:

"Majdic thinks she punctured the lung in the sprint finals because she felt something go bad at that point."

2/23/10: Justyna Kowalcyzk, on losing to Marit Bjørgen twice in three races:

"I must admit that Marit Bjørgen is very ill. Although she does not look like it, but it is so. It is a pity, being healthy and strong and losing to an unhleathy person. After the sprint I thought: 'Damn, to lose to this kind of ill person.' But I sincerely congratulate her... How does asthma help my rivals? Before the start they are allowed to take steroids that expand the airways. I think I do not have to explain in detail what advantage it gives to allow more air into the lungs in a sport like ours."

2/24/10: Odd-Bjørn Hjelmeset, on his bad decision to ski the second leg of the men's relay on hairies:

"It was my choice to take rub skis. The shape is good."

2/25/10: The aptly-named Norwegian nordic combined racer Magnus Moan on the large-hill jumping that supposedly left him too far back to contend for a medal:

"It's a joke."

2/25/10: Austrian NC racer Felix Gottwald, on the same topic:

"This jumping competition has nothing to do with fair competition."

2/28/10: Justyna Kowalcyzk, on why she would not talk more about her accusations regarding Bjørgen's asthma:

"This is not a good time to talk about this question or my opinion."

2/28/10: Petter Northug, on why he didn't need to pass Axel Teichmann in the men's 50km any earlier than he did:

"I had another gear available, but didn't need to use it."

And for pure Gallic drama, Vincent Vittoz (2/22/10) on the aftermath of the team sprint:
"Petukhov got an warning for an unsporting gesture against Cyril But this evening he sleep with his medal and us we have just our eyes to cry."