Friday, March 6, 2009

Lahti 15k Predictions

Well, the good news is that by throwing down the gauntlet on Chris, he made some of his best predictions of the year. The bad news is that I scored a 63 (the worst you could possibly do is only 100!)

I'm still wondering what thought process led me to discount Petra after I watched a video about how she can actually skate sprint this year, or why I thought a Finnish skate-sprint-specialist racing IN FINLAND (Muranen) would do poorly. The only explanation I have is that my brief infatuation with Kikkan Randall (which has now passed after her 49th place today!) was clouding my judgement.

Undeterred, we have a new set of picks for tomorrow's 15k. It's the first individual start skate race on the World Cup in over two months (Rybinsk, Otepaa, and Liberec were all classic 15ks) so there's no recent precedent for this event. I ended up going with a mix of guys who've looked good in the mass start skates at World Champs (Legkov,Angerer) and known good skaters (Soedegren, Piller Cottrer) -- and then the obligatory Finnish guy in 5th (Jauhojaervi).

Same algorithm for the women, right down to another Finn in 5th (Roponen).

Men's 15k F
1 Soedegren
2 Angerer
3 Piller Cottrer
4 Legkov
5 Jauhojaervi

Alt: Cologna, Vittoz

Women's 10k F
1 Kalla
2 Steira
3 Kowalczyk
4 Longa
5 Roponen

Alt: Johaug, Follis

Men's 15k F
1. Piller Cottrer
2. Gaillard
3. Gjerdalen
4. Northug
5. Soedergren

alternates: Babikov, Heikkinen

Women's 10k F
1. Steira
2. Longa
3. Kalla
4. Shevchenko
5. Nystad

alternates: Kuitunen, Roponen


ADS said...

Here are my picks for tomorrow.

1. Justyna Kowalczyk
2. Riitta-Liisa Roponen
3. Kristin Stormer Steira
4. Charlotte Kalla
5. Virpi Kuitunen

Alternate: Longa, Johaug

1. Anders Soergren
2. Pietro Piller Cottrer
3. Tobias Angerer
4. Vincent Vittoz
5. Jean Marc Gaillard

Alternate: Hellner, Bauer

Laura Gardner said...

1. Kowalczyk
2. Steira
3. Longa
4. Kuitunen
5. Shevchenko

1. Di Centa
2. Legkov
3. Northug
4. Angerer

Christopher Tassava said...

trashtalk on

Ah, the sweet smell of success...

After today's individual races in Lahti, it appears that it is I who possesses the greater predictive powers. Though not by much. (See the spreadsheet)

Colin actually made the best picks for the individual races, amassing 30 points in the men's race and just 18 in the women's to my 34 and 29, respectively. ADS scored 40 and 22, Laura 28 and 26. Largely on the strength of picking Legkov for silver and Kowalczyk to win, however, Laura finished second to me for the Lahti weekend, with 93 points to my 89. Not bad for an Alaskan.

Of the four entrants in this little contest, my esteemed co-host in fact finished 22% behind me in fourth, otherwise known as last. Better luck with Trondheim!

trashtalk off