The mass-start events in La Clusaz always look to me like laps around a windy, hilly field. But they also almost always turn into good races. With the Tour now in the background, we should see all of the heavy hitters back in action. I would love to tab a couple of the Finnish women to do well, but who? Instead, I'm going with likely suspects:
The Final Climb matters this year, once again! I like this. The women's race is actually looking to be less interesting than the men's for once, though if Johaug goes bonkers she might be able to close the gap to Kowalczyk and outclimb the Pole. I'm not putting my money on the overall win for Johaug, but I do see her taking the stage win.
On the men's side, things are much tighter: the top four are within 16.5 seconds of each other, which should make for some legitimately head-to-head action on the climb itself. I think it'll come down to Cologna and Legkov, and I think the Swiss will be first to the summit. Cologna will turn in a good time, but I think that Ivan "Bulldog" Babikov, who has been skiing superbly throughout the tour, will take the stage win.
Regardless of what happens, both races are going to be insanely fun to watch (no matter what some people think).
Except for the Final Climb - about which my Canadian co-blogger and I will have to disagree - I like the mass-start classic race the most. Do I say that about the stages of the Tour de Ski? Maybe I do. But the classic mass start in Val di Fiemme is a brutal, brutal race, with a ton of climbing, more tactical maneuvering than a war game, and all those bonus points - fewer this year than last, but still a lot of them. And then there's the timing of the race, the day before the Final Climb. Some racers are going great guns to catch up, others are fighting to maintain a lead, others are doing their bits for their teams, and still others are just conserving energy. If that's possible on such a tough course.
Anyhow, here are my picks. I had a hard time not putting Randall in the women's top five, but I just don't see it. Up the Alpe, though...
I know the TdS stage to Cortina isn't perfect, what with the pursuits taking two different formats - the women's 3x5k lap race, the men's 35k point-to-point race - but don't bother me with details: I love this stage.
The men's long up-then-down race from Toblach is a great spectacle, at least as good - for my Euro - as the final climb. And while the women's race is less fun to watch, the pursuit start and the significance of the finishing order and gaps heightens the drama. Plus also freestyle technique, which just seems more exciting to me, even though I much prefer classical in general. And when the racers finish - undoubtedly in exactly the order below - on Thursday, they have just two more days before the final climb!
The one-and-only sprint in the Tour de Ski is in a unique venue, Val Müstair, Switzerland - the hometown of Dario Cologna. As near as the FIS database can say, no major race has ever been staged there, so it's really not home snow for anyone.
Though Kikkan Randall had a - relatively and uncharacteristically - "poor" race in Sunday's classic pursuit, I will join everyone else at Who Wins by picking her to win the women's race. I see Dario pulling off the hometown win on an interesting course that appeals to all-rounders and offers bonus seconds to the top 30 finishers for the long stage from Toblach to Cortina on Thursday.
I keep thinking about how strange it is to be a fan of North American cross-country skiing right now. I started following the World Cup seriously in 2005, just before the Oberstdorf world championships, at a time when Kris Freeman was the only serious North American contender for a top-20 result.
The situation now is an epic contrast. On the men's side, we have Harvey and Kershaw, two men who can vie for a win in any given event. Behind them are a handful of skiers - a few at or maybe past the peaks of their careers, a few more on the ascent - who can and do pull off good races - Babikov, Valjas, Freeman, Newell, even now Hamilton and Hoffman.
The women's side is even better. Jones and Crawford ski well for Canada, but are overshadowed by a ridiculously strong American team: Diggins, Stephen, Sargent, Brooks - and of course Randall. By now I shouldn't be surprised by anything that Kikkan Randall does on skis, and yet I am. Today she won the Tour de Ski prologue in Oberhof with a very strong race, making it all the more difficult to resist picking her to finish in the top five in any race of the Tour.
A casual observer can tell that Randall has the physical skills to do very well in the Tour, but I'm impressed by her mental preparedness. As she told Fasterskier: “While it’s nice to have a good result today it’s really about having that consistency over seven events. I’m confident in my ability to do that but you can’t take too much away from today. You’ve just got to focus on tomorrow right away."
I think she's going to do well on Sunday and throughout the rest of the Tour:
