Men's Pursuit

I misunderestimated the female racers, and especially Kristin Stoermer Steira. Why did I not know she has three medals from pursuits at Olympics and World Champs? I did correctly pick the Polish Speedster to win, though. Kowalczyk showed some tactical acumen by forcing Steira to lead, then using her own sprint speed to pass for the win. Saarinen, I figured incorrectly to be gassed from the 10k win.

Now that Norway has a medal, I think the scene is set for Petter Northug to redeem himself for the silly pole-between-the-legs fall at Sapporo. My picks for tomorrow's men's pursuit, which is almost certain to not end in a breakaway or a two-up sprint:

men's 15km + 15km pursuit
1. Northug
2. Cologna
3. Piller Cottrer
Kershaw and Babikov: top 15

Freeman Repeats!

I think we can all agree that Kris Freeman's 4th place in today's 15k Classic at World Champs was completely predictable. After all, this is the same guy who got 4th place in the 15k Classic at the 2003 World Championships in Val di Fiemme. There's not much you can bank on in skiing, but Freeman getting 4th in a 15k classic at Worlds? Duh!

Seriously though -- in the six years between his two fourth places, Freeman's career could charitably be described as "showed some promise" and un-charitably be described as "generally mediocre." The only thing more impressive than his fourth place today was the manner in which it was achieved.

Freeman wore bib 21, seeded well ahead of all the favorites. He passed through the 5k check in 2nd, trailing only Franz Goering (#9), which was interesting but not particularly foreboding. By the time all the favorites had come through, Freeman's 5k time had slid to 21st-best, 32 seconds behind the leader, Lukas Bauer.

However, Freeman started his second loop just before Bauer started his first, giving Freeman the opportunity to race head-to-head with arguably the race favorite. Except he had already skied 5k, and Bauer had not.

Nevertheless Freeman was able to hang with Bauer, and began a swift ascent up the standings by keeping pace with the race leader. When Freeman reach the 6.85k he was still 2nd on the course, but his time only fell to 14th by the end; at 8.15k he had moved ahead of Goering to set the fastest time at that check, eventually dropping to 10th there. He led at all splits beyond that point.

At 10k Freeman was 6th overall, and only 27 seconds behind Bauer, whom he was still following on the course; at 11.8k he was 4th. With just over a kilometer remaining in his race, he passed Bauer as Bauer set the best time at the 8.9k mark.

This is surely a very rare occurrence -- the race leader getting passed by an athlete who has skied 50% further than he has!



In the last 10k of the race Freeman skied the fastest split of anyone, 25:53, beating the eventual winner Veerpalu by 6 seconds, Bauer by 21 seconds, and 3rd place "Finnisher" Matti Heikkinen by 25 seconds.

Freeman managed to ski negative splits for the race -- 13:18.8, 13:00.2, 12:52.2, also a very rare occurrence in elite competition. Could he have been 1.5 seconds faster and made the podium with a more even pacing strategy?

Probably not. With Bauer starting 13:30 behind him and being the event's favorite, it was almost assured that Freeman would be caught by Bauer just after starting his second lap. The dirty secret of World Cup interval starts is that you have to draft the hell out of anyone you can, and a huge number of "breakout" races are actually due to starting 30 seconds ahead of someone fast enough to tow you to a good spot once they catch you. Knowing this, Freeman's strategy would have been to either hitch himself to Martin Johnsrud Sundby, #47, or Bauer, #48, after a lap. To link up with Sundby he would've had to post one of the fastest first laps of the whole race, and even then, would you trust your race to a "Norwegian" named John?

Indeed, Sundby eventually finished 2:30 down, so even if Freeman had skied with him up after a lap, he still would have been caught by Bauer soon enough.

(The fact that Sundby was dropped, hard, by Bauer, shows that "just draft Lukas Bauer" isn't as simple a strategy as it might sound, especially when you've skied 5k further than he has.)

So, Freeman was almost definitely going to meet Bauer on the course regardless of how fast he started, and since Bauer's superhuman, taking a slightly easier first lap knowing he'd have to ski out of his mind to hang with Lukas was probably the right strategy. If Freeman was to make up 1.5 seconds, he'd have to do at the end -- and his final lap of 12:52.2 was the second-fastest lap of the entire day, behind only Bauer's first lap.

Which is pretty cool, I'm just trying to say.

Pursuity

The women's pursuit at Liberec takes place as Norway, always expecting little short of domination, finds itself lacking any cross-country medals. I doubt they'll fix that in the pursuit, though Kristin Stoermer Steira is showing some good form and could do well. With so many good skaters in the mix, I think the race will wind up in a pack finish featuring big guns like Steira, Charlotte Kalla, and Aino-Kaisa Saarinen. My picks, though:

women's 7.5km + 7.5km pursuit
1. Kowalcyzk
2. Shevchenko
3. Longa
Renner: top 10

Liberec: Men's 15km

Two years ago at Sapporo, the men's individual-start 15km skate race was quite a mess, owing to a blizzard and a giant field. The biathlete Lars Berger pulled off an unexpected win, while Tobias Angerer raced very hard to pick up the bronze - just behind then- and now-unknown Belarussian Leanid Karneynka, who won a shock silver.

Odds are running against any such craziness at Liberec, even though the venue is socked with snow and wind. The field has 75 racers in it, rather than the 121 on the start list at Sapporo. My picks:
men's 15km individual-start classic race
1. Bauer
2. Olsson
3. Johnsrud Sundby
Kershaw: top 15
Freeman: top 30

Liberecated

The Nordic Ski World Championships are finally open in Liberec, Czech Republic. A colossal slate of competitions, with the largest-ever complement of athletes and countries, started today with an unusual event: short qualification races to help determine who would be permitted to start in the 10km women's and 15km men's classical races, to be held on Thursday and Friday, respectively. (155 women and 236 men from 60 countries are registered for XC events.)

I hope we can provide some analytic coverage of the cross-country racing between now and Sunday, March 1, but for now I'll just offer my picks for the first XC race:

women's 10km individual-start classic race
1. Kowalcyzk
2. Majdic
3. Johaug
Renner: top 10
Randall: top half of the 76 registered starters

Distance Tune-Up

My six predictions for today's sprints were hit or miss. I didn't predict a single one of the women on the podium, even though I'd promised myself to always bet on Majdic. (I is so disappointed in me.) On the men's side, I hit Hattestad right on the head-estad, and Pasini did make it into the final. But Alexey Petukhov? Who?

Anyhow, here's how tomorrow's classical-technique individual start races are gonna go down:

men's 15km

1. Cologna

2. Johnsrud Sundby

3. Olsson

women's 10km

1. Saarinen

2. Majdic

3. Johaug

Peaking

World Cup racing resumes this weekend with the first-ever visit by the tour to Valdidentro, Italy, one of those crappy mountain towns with nothing going for it besides eye-popping scenery, charming villages, delicious food, and very little oxygen. Why the place is "Valdidentro" rather than "Val di Dentro," like "Val di Fiemme," I have no idea. Couldn't pay the tax on the spaces, maybe?

Anyhow, the racing is off center by one day: the sprints - freestyle - are on Friday, and the distance races - 10/15km individual-start classic - are on Saturday. Sunday, everybody packs up and heads to Liberec, where the FIS World Ski Championships start on the Wednesday, February 18. Even alleged Russian dopers are skiing there!

Given the proximity to Worlds, the Valdidentro races are important tune-ups, but not so critical that some big names can't skip them. Virpi Kuitunen's opting out of the freestyle sprint, for instance. My picks:

women's freestyle sprint
1. Arianna Follis.
2. Justyna Kowalczyk
3. Aino-Kaisa Saarinen

men's freestyle sprint
1. Ola Vigen Hattestad
2. Bjorn Lind
3. Fabio Pasini